UFC 214 BETTING CHEAT SHEET: ODDS ANALYSIS AND PREVIEW
When it will not be the largest combat sports event of the summer, UFC 214 is certainly the largest MMA event of the season. On top of the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card includes two additional name bouts, contenders and enjoyable fights throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a peek at where the gambling odds have proceeded for all 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were released and he gives his ideas on each matchup. All traces are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favored first time these two scrapped and a few naively expected the line would be similar this time around. However, it seems that Jones’ legal problems, run-in with USADA and layoff has not had the impact anticipated on the line. It is difficult to blame bettors Cormier is currently 38-years-old, has been through some hard battles since their first meeting, and Jones won every component of that first fight. Expect something similar – if not more dominant – that time around.
Regardless of how seriously he takes his groundwork, Jones is the type of fighter who rises to the occasion like few others. To him, this is the ultimate event. Cormier is his main rival and he’s the opportunity to regain the belt that he never dropped against him. That combination will result in a huge performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch of Cormier and re-assert his dominance in the branch.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Much like the main event, this line hasn’t seen much motion. Given the contrasting styles, that’s not hard to believe. There is a contingent of individuals who believe Woodley is going to starch Maia with the first punch he yells. They could very well be correct. The opposing side of this coin consists of those who think that Maia can shut the space, latch onto Woodley like he has so many others and only predominate his grappling. They could be right as well. Woodley’s inclination to back himself against the cage and play counter-puncher is going to be his demise here. Maia is becoming so good at going into the clinch if not under stress he should be able to create Woodley miss after. Despite a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, after Maia gets his hands on you, that’s a huge trouble.
The Brazilian’s capacity to commence Jiu-Jitsu imports without hitting conventional takedowns is second to none (he’s perfected the single leg to back take) and Woodley being the kind of man who likes to explode out of places will only hurt him once that occurs. It is kind of surprising that Maia by Sub pays an extra dollar (+275 as of Thursday morning), since Woodley will not be able to survive 25 moments of Maia engaging in the type of fight he wants to. The other option is most likely a quick Woodley KO (+350 for the champ in Round 1, incidentally ).
Cristiane «Cyborg» Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This battle being bettable is dependent on which kind of bettor you are. In case you don’t have any difficulty throwing a huge lineup in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at almost -1400), or Cyborg ITD (nearly -700) are nearly sure things. If that is not really your style, neither will be placing nearly 2-to-1 on a prop like Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a drama is based on Evinger’s strength. She has taken damage in many of her struggles and persevered and she probably won’t come back to beat Cyborg in this one after a tough beginning, there is an outside shot she can endure five minutes. But even the prices for»Fight Starts Round 2″ and Cyborg Round two have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450, respectively), making them less appealing even to someone who’s always on the hunt for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It’s a shame this struggle is occurring after both men have apparently passed their peak in terms of durability, because a war with Lawler and Cerrone at their best would be something to behold. This fight will return to distance direction and in-fight choices. Lawler would like to be indoors, Cerrone wants to be outdoors. The difficulty for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will eventually see him get indoors and at that point, anticipate Cerrone to be much too ready to oblige him that the warfare he’s searching for. While this will grant us the type of fight we would like to view, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.
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