Best Bets for UFC 219: Weekly Wagering Deep Dive
UFC 219 is set to take place this Saturday night (Dec. 30) at Las Vegas, Nevada, and let us just say it doesn’t scream”caliber” like preceding end-of-year UFC cards.
The UFC stacks its final card of this year from top to base. In 2017, we now get a major event between Holly Holm and Cris Cyborg. While it has the potential to become a great fight, it does not necessarily scream”buy this pay-per-view!”
Additionally, this is a very hard card to bet on as there aren’t lots of fights that you can get a strong read on. A number of the favorites, such as Cyborg and Khabib Nurmagomedov, deserve to become overwhelming favorites, yet might also easily get merked by their competitions. Danger lurks.
That said, we must generate a few plays. So let us do the best we can to come across a few golden underdogs, some worthy props, and a rewarding softball. Additionally checking out my Best Bets for UFC Futures from a week, in which I suggested a few’dogs (Carla Esparza and Neil Magny) who hold some value.
Golden Underdogs
Middleweight: Marvin Vettori (-222) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+187)
At first glance, this moneyline in BetOnline seems perfectly okay, but when you have a better look at this preliminary matchup, you can get some solid reasons to take the puppy in Omari”The Wolverine” Akhmedov (17-4).
Even though Marvin Vettori (12-3) is a bigger fighter who loves to throw down, averaging 3.13 significant strikes landed per minute, he does not possess enough power to take Akhmedov out through (T)KO, therefore this battle could wind up being a grappling affair. While Akhmedov has revealed in the past he has some power in his hands (seven wins by knockout and two”Battle of the Night” bonuses in the UFC), where he really shines is in the wrestling department. The Dagestani grappler could easily end up controlling the fight if the majority is invested at the clinch or around the mat.
The kryptonite I see for Akhmedov is that his gas tank. Will he strike a cardio wall just like he did in consecutive knockout losses to Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski? In both of those losses, Akhmedov started strong but faded badly in the subsequent rounds.
He followed those declines with two hard-working decision wins over Kyle Noke and Abdul Razak Alhassan, the latter an upset at UFC Fight Night 109. Right now I am leaning towards”The Wolverine’s” hard palms and wrestling acumen for a second possibly profitable upset.
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